Forests are increasingly at risk due to droughts caused by climate change. However, experts at the University of Sopron have created pioneering software that models the spread of flames on the “digital twin” of the forest, helping firefighters save lives and provide accurate protection, among other things.
Forest fires do not spread blindly. Those who know the terrain, wind direction and forest structure can gain a head start against the flames. This realization has been taken to a digital level by the University of Sopron, where they have developed a simulation system that models the disaster on a three-dimensional copy of Hungarian forests.
The relevance of the development is shown by the stark figures. In Hungary, 1000-2000 hectares of forest area are affected by fire in an average year, but climate change and drought periods completely upset this statistic.
“When there is a drought year, the size of our forest fires jumps tenfold, twentyfold. In a drought year like 2022, this number can jump to 10-20 thousand hectares,” emphasized the seriousness of the situation by Prof. Dr. Kornél Czimber, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of Forestry Engineering of the University of Sopron.
Previous estimates were based on simple data, such as the age of the forest or the tree species. The Sopron technology digs much deeper than that: it uses so-called LIDAR (airborne laser scanning) data. This is practically a spatial X-ray image of the forest, where the position, height and branch structure of each tree are precisely visible. “The simulation sees where there is new growth, where there are young individuals, and where they reach up to the crowns of older trees. This is important because of the vertical spread of fire,” the professor explained. The software handles steep slopes as well as trees with pinpoint accuracy. The model takes into account that on an upward slope, a fire can accelerate up to two to three times faster, if the wind helps. The system also knows the flammability of pine forests, dry litter and the behavior of wetter deciduous forests.
The greatest value of the development is the speed and testing of options. In the future, professionals will be able to see where the fire is heading and test in the simulator where it is worth intervening.
“We can tell you exactly where to apply the fire spray: here, or fifty meters back. The simulator can also model how starting a counterfire or extinguishing it with water will affect the processes,” the deputy dean pointed out the practical benefits of the software.
Similar systems are mainly used in Canada, the USA or Turkey, and this solution is unique in our region. The program is capable of running thousands of possible scenarios, thus providing an accurate forecast for strategic planning. Students at the University of Sopron can already master these modern procedures at school, preparing for the more difficult years caused by climate change.
Although the development of the software started as a result of an international conference, the goal is to protect Hungarian forests. As the 2022 drought showed, the size of burned areas can increase tenfold during fire-prone periods. The technology from Sopron can greatly help us protect our natural treasures based on data.
Source: University of Sopron
